Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Red_Mage_Punos on Wed Jan 21, 2009 8:28 pm

IceLemur wrote:
Red_Mage_Punos wrote:I shall wait a week for others to answer before i give my judgement
You just don't want to admit I'm right...
no you're wrong, i have proved that to you visually and with words but you still don't get it

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  IceLemur on Wed Jan 21, 2009 8:04 pm

Red_Mage_Punos wrote:I shall wait a week for others to answer before i give my judgement
You just don't want to admit I'm right...

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Red_Mage_Punos on Wed Jan 21, 2009 8:03 pm

I shall wait a week for others to answer before i give my judgement

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  IceLemur on Wed Jan 21, 2009 7:55 pm

At first it seems that there is as much of a chance that that the car is behind the door, but the argument that Tim will make is that the chances of you choosing the right door the first time are 1:3 (which is correct). Now there is a 1:2 chance that you will choose the correct door, but you made the first choice under the 1:3, so switching would give you a 1:2 chance.
However, I would like to pull out the effect of independent chances (casinos make their money this way) that states no matter how many times you win or lose, there is an equal chance that you will either win or lose the next time because the chances reset (black jack under certain rules makes it so that this does not apply which is why it is rigged so much).
What I am saying is that when the third door is revealed to have a goat, not a car, behind it, and under the theory stated above, the chances reset, and both doors have a 1:2 chance because you are remaking the decision. It is merely the wording of the question that confuses you into thinking that you are not are making an independent decision, when in fact you are. This man was a mathematician, not an English major or a philosopher. And apparently not a gambler.
Furthermore, the show could be making an attempt to freak you out into choosing the other door, because you chose correctly the first time, and they want to make money.
Another factor would be whether you want a car or a goat. Just sayn'....

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Red_Mage_Punos on Wed Jan 21, 2009 7:36 pm

actually, he is completely right, although there is also the theory that he will eventually land once the cat contorts himself enough to l;ick off the butter, negating the effects of the toast so that the cat lands...but i didn't want to overload you with a hard one...so here is one of my favorites (in movie 21 but not from it)

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? (Whitaker 1990)

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Admin on Wed Jan 21, 2009 5:07 pm

wow this has just been made a complete joke lol!

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Disturbed_One on Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:56 pm

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Admin on Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:27 pm

though i disdain form this sort of thing technically like terrence says if the cat lands on its feet always the buttered toast never has to hit the ground and never will hit the ground as long as the cat keeps landing for it.

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  IceLemur on Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:25 pm

The toast never hits the ground as long as the cat lands on its feet, so it makes it impossible for anything but the toast hitting the ground butter side up to occur (in the case that the cat rolls over).

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Re: Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Red_Mage_Punos on Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:09 pm

to start off on a light note, if we accept as true that
1.)Cats always land on their feet
and
2.)Buttered toast always lands butter-side down
How will a cat with buttered toast strapped butter-side up on the cats back land?
(I shall refrain from answering)

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Though experiments...here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

Post  Red_Mage_Punos on Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:03 pm

here we shall discuss a different thought experiment every week

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